Canada is unlikely to win full removal of China’s tariffs on canola, pork and seafood during Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to Beijing this week, senior officials say, but relief could come soon in the first prime ministerial trip to China in more than eight years.
Progress, not a full peace
Federal officials briefing reporters ahead of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to China say there might be relief coming soon on Chinese tariffs — but not a total end to the dispute with Beijing.
Carney is scheduled to leave Tuesday for a three-day visit to Beijing, the first by a sitting Canadian prime minister in more than eight years. Senior Canadian officials told Reuters the same thing they told Canadian reporters: they expected progress during the Jan. 14–17 visit, but not the definitive elimination of Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola exports.
The dispute has been building for two years. Canada imposed a 100 per cent tariff on Chinese electric vehicles and a 25 per cent import tax on Chinese steel and aluminum. China responded by hitting Canada with a 100 per cent tariff on canola oil in March, followed by a levy of almost 76 per cent on canola seed in August, along with a 25 per cent levy on Canadian pork and seafood. The canola duties have virtually eliminated exports to what was previously the biggest market for Canadian canola seed. China is Canada’s second-biggest trading partner after the United States.
Two provinces pulling opposite ways
Some premiers and industry groups want Ottawa to get the tariffs dropped outright, and farm groups are watching the trip closely. Colin Hornby, head of the Manitoba farm group Keystone Agricultural Producers, told Reuters he did not expect an agreement eliminating the canola tariffs during the trip, but was optimistic something could happen in the coming weeks or months. Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew has framed the situation as a two-front trade squeeze for Western Canada, caught between the defence of Ontario’s auto base and the Prairies’ reliance on agricultural exports.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford, the auto sector and some China experts are pushing the other way, cautioning against allowing Chinese vehicles into Canada. Ford urged Carney not to “back down,” saying the EV tariffs should only be lifted if China opens a manufacturing facility in Ontario. “Both Canada and China want to signal their good intentions, so they each need to give away something,” said Lynette Ong, a professor of Chinese politics at the University of Toronto. Vina Nadjibulla of the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada warned that deeper cooperation in sectors like artificial intelligence and critical minerals could cross security red lines: “There are clear red lines not to be crossed.”
What happened in Beijing
The officials’ caution proved well placed — and so did the farmers’ optimism. On Jan. 16, Carney announced that Canada and China had reached a preliminary but landmark trade agreement. China is expected to lower combined tariffs on Canadian canola seed to about 15 per cent by March 1, down from roughly 84 per cent, and in return Canada will allow up to 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into the country each year at the most-favoured-nation tariff rate of 6.1 per cent, replacing the 100 per cent levy. China will also let Canadian visitors enter visa-free.
Carney hailed a “new strategic partnership” after meeting President Xi Jinping — the first meeting between the two countries’ leaders in Beijing in eight years — and said engagement and cooperation would be its foundation, with agriculture, energy and finance the areas of most immediate progress.
