The buy Canadian movement that swept grocery stores in 2025 has waned as shoppers return to the cheapest option, with patriotic purchasing down to 46 per cent in December from a 65 per cent April peak, Ipsos says. But retail experts predict it will surge again as the CUSMA review heats up.
Price is king again
About a year since a fresh wave of patriotism set in at the grocery store, many shoppers no longer check labels so intently for Canadian ties. Experts say the fervour drained away as shoppers grew fatigued by trade rhetoric, many tariffs — including some of Canada’s countertariffs — were removed, and food inflation took a toll on household budgets.
Statistics Canada said food price growth was five per cent year over year in December, continuing to outpace headline inflation. The major grocers — Empire Co. Ltd., Metro Inc. and Loblaw Cos. Ltd. — have all noticed the shift. “We are seeing some customers who are going back to those products that they love, now that they are much cheaper than they were, and that will have some impact on Canadian sales,” Loblaw chief executive Per Bank told analysts on a conference call in November.
Among all retail lines, patriotic purchasing steadily fell to 46 per cent in December from a peak of 65 per cent in April, according to an Ipsos Canada analysis. “The average Canadian consumer wallet is not strong enough to bear high premium costs of local products,” said Amar Singh, senior director and head of Canadian retail insights at Kantar.
The movement has also changed shape — from buy Canadian to buy anything-other-than-American, as long as it is affordable, said Jo-Ann McArthur, president of Nourish Food Marketing. “(Consumers) are perhaps a little more pragmatic when it comes to shopping,” she said.
How the first wave changed the store
The buy Canadian wave first surged last year as U.S. President Donald Trump’s attacks on trade with Canada brought economic uncertainty, tariffs and annexation threats. Canada responded with counter levies, including on symbolic food items such as Florida orange juice.
Grocers responded to shoppers’ demand for local goods by shoring up domestic and international supply chains. They added maple leaf signs to shelves to indicate products with Canadian ties, and Loblaw marked items that saw price increases due to tariffs with a “T” symbol. Manufacturers revamped packaging to highlight domestic ties.
Those changes were neither quick nor cheap. Onboarding new suppliers is usually a long planning process that can take up to a year, McArthur said. “It is a big deal to change something at a store level,” she said. It is not as simple as swapping one product for another; decisions trickle down from head office to every store.
Why experts expect a second wave
The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement — CUSMA — is up for a scheduled joint review this year, with the review date arriving in July. Experts say that sets the stage for intensified rhetoric from Trump on tariffs and threats of annexing Canada, and could pave the way for a fresh wave of buy Canadian sentiment.
“Based on the direction that the trade talks would take, we will see that fervor returning back into the shopping decision,” predicted Singh. “There’s a very high chance of it happening.”
Even now, Trump’s pursuit of Greenland could incline Canadians to avoid American products and favour local vendors. “With Greenland, I think Canadians can sympathize with the feelings,” said Peter Chapman, founder of consulting firm SKUFood. “Even though it’s got no direct impact on Canada, when we read that or see that happening in front of us, we say, ‘Well, that could be us next.'”
Should the movement ramp up again, grocers are much better positioned this time. “They’ve done a lot of the heavy lifting and can react quicker now,” said Chapman. Volumes for local products may not be as strong, but McArthur said the supply changes are likely to stay because “it just makes for a more resilient supply chain.” “Retailers still want to be seen as supporting that,” she said.
Ipsos polling through the trade war suggests the underlying sentiment has not disappeared: majorities of Canadians told the firm they had bought Canadian products or avoided American ones because of the tensions, and most of those who changed their habits said they would keep buying Canadian even after the crisis ends — a habit grocers may only need rhetoric, not rebuilding, to reactivate.
