A Leger online survey conducted Jan. 9 to 11, 2026 among 1,540 Canadians found 31 per cent believe it is likely the United States could one day attempt direct action to take control of Canada. The poll followed the U.S. military intervention in Venezuela. Greenland was seen as the likeliest future U.S. target, cited by 55 per cent of respondents.
Canada on a list it is not usually on
Canada ranked lowest among the places respondents were asked about, but its presence on the list at all is the finding Leger highlighted. When Canadians who see further U.S. intervention as likely were asked where it could happen, Greenland came first at 55 per cent, followed by Cuba at 51 per cent, Colombia and Panama at 47 per cent each, and Iran at 36 per cent. Canada’s 31 per cent placed it below all of them.
Americans were less likely to see their own country acting against its northern neighbour. Among the 1,011 Americans surveyed, 20 per cent thought the U.S. government might attempt direct action against Canada — an 11-point gap compared with Canadian opinion.
Leger describes the result as a striking level of concern about the future direction of American foreign policy, including fears that Canada itself could one day be targeted.
A political divide inside Canada
Concern was not spread evenly across the political spectrum. According to the survey results reported this week, it was highest among Green Party supporters at 58 per cent, followed by those intending to vote NDP at 44 per cent. Liberal supporters, at 34 per cent, sat close to the national average, while Conservative supporters were at 30 per cent. Bloc Québécois supporters were the least likely to see Canada as a potential target, at 27 per cent.
That spread, from 58 per cent down to 27 per cent, suggests the question is being answered partly through a political lens: supporters of parties most critical of the current U.S. administration are far more likely to see a threat, while supporters of parties focused on other issues are more likely to dismiss one.
Venezuela shaped the answers
The poll was fielded days after the U.S. intervention in Venezuela, and Canadians were paying attention. Nearly two-thirds, 65 per cent, said they were following developments involving the United States and Venezuela.
Most did not approve of what they saw. A majority of Canadians, 53 per cent, said the U.S. military action in Venezuela was a bad thing because it violated the country’s sovereignty and set a dangerous precedent. Only 23 per cent believed the intervention was justified because it removed a corrupt regime and could improve governance. In the United States, 39 per cent shared that view.
Canadians were also skeptical about Washington’s motives. Nearly two-thirds, 63 per cent, said the primary reason for the intervention was to gain control of Venezuela’s oil reserves. Overall, 56 per cent of Canadians said the intervention had worsened their impression of the American government, while only 9 per cent said it had improved their view.
How to read these numbers
Leger conducted the survey online between Jan. 9 and 11, 2026, among 1,540 Canadian residents and 1,011 American residents aged 18 or older, recruited through its LEO online panel. Results were weighted by age, gender, region, language, education and household composition.
Because the sample is a non-probability panel, Leger says a margin of error cannot be associated with it in the usual way. For comparison only, a probability sample of 1,540 would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 2.50 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, and the American sample a margin of plus or minus 3.08 points.
The poll measures perception at a moment of high tension, not a forecast. It does not say an attempt against Canada is planned or expected by experts. What it shows is that, after Venezuela, nearly one in three Canadians no longer rules one out — a shift in trust between two countries that share the world’s longest land border.
